EPIC Analysis: Comparative Total Discretionary Spending, FY 2023-2024

*The disaster and program integrity adjustment number for FY24 (both versions) reflects an estimate based on the previous year's disaster and program integrity cap adjustments. **The “?” signifies the unknown future supplemental discretionary spending that would be enacted in FY24. This amount would include both outstanding supplemental spending requests (i.e., for Ukraine, Israel, and the border) and future requests (e.g., for natural disasters). Questions Left on the Table: Additional Supplemental Spending Numbers Required to Know Total Spend Both the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) and the FRA plus the Johnson-Schumer deal subtotal to $1.684 trillion, not including additional emergency spending or supplemental packages beyond what is already wrapped into “Emergency-in-Base” funding for the topline agreement announced on January 7, 2024. In comparing total discretionary spending between fiscal years 2023 and 2024 (both iterations of FY 2024), the subtotals provided in Table 1 must be added to other emergency and supplemental spending. We know the total for FY 2023, but emergency and supplemental spending has not yet been enacted for FY 2024. To stay below the FY 2023 total budget authority, Congress would need to keep its discretionary spending amount below $1.747 trillion. The difference between that level and the current subtotal for FY 2024 is $63 billion. Thus, to remain under the FY23 Omnibus total discretionary spending level while adopting either the original FRA plus its side deal or the Johnson-Schumer plan, Congress would only have $63 billion left to spend on supplemental packages. Questions Left on the Table: Anticipated and Potential Supplemental Spending in FY 2024 Congress is likely to consider multiple supplemental spending packages throughout the remainder of the current fiscal year (FY 2024). These include:

• Foreign Aid/Defense Supplemental
• Border Security Supplemental
• Natural Disaster Emergency Supplemental(s)
• Disaster Relief Fund Supplemental

The White House made a supplemental request on October 20, 2023, for $105.6 billion. This proposal included funding requests for (1) Ukraine; (2) Israel; (3) Humanitarian Assistance; (4) Submarine Industrial Base; and (5) the Border. It is possible that the border security request amount included in the supplemental request from President Biden is below what Congressional Republicans would prefer. The FEMA Disaster Relief Fund (DRF) is projected to be $6.4 billion in the negative by the end of FY 2024. This will likely precipitate a supplemental appropriations request to backfill the DRF. Natural disaster spending should be anticipated to result in an emergency supplemental from natural disasters such as major winter storms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and wildfires. In FY 2023, a disaster supplemental appropriations bill was enacted providing $38 billion. We cannot fully anticipate the level of funding that will be requested for future natural disasters in FY 2024. It is possible that additional supplemental defense spending will also be requested or required as international affairs continue to destabilize, as evidenced by the recent attacks by Houthi forces and the U.S. response. Table 2. Estimated Potential Emergency & Supplemental Spending in FY 2024 (Billions of Dollars) Taken together, anticipated additional supplemental spending calculated using the President’s request, the known DRF need, and estimates from last year, total emergency and supplemental spending for FY 2024 should be expected to be at least $112 billion. Given that the difference between the Johnson-Schumer FRA Deal and the FY 2023 Omnibus is $63 billion, this would exceed the previous year’s total discretionary spend amount unless Congress offsets its additional emergency and supplemental funding.